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煤矿生产设计部门为制定矿井涌水量疏排措施、确定矿井排水能力、防止矿井突水淹井等严重事故的发生,需要对矿井涌水量进行准确预测,但矿井涌水量受大气降水、地表水、水文地质条件、开采情况等多种因素的影响,往往呈现出较大的随机性和波动性。作为一种不确定性系统理论,灰色理论GM(1,1)避开了各种复杂因素的影响,可通过小样本数据建立动态预测模型且模型计算方式灵活,能够对煤矿涌水量进行有效预测。通过对基于这一理论的斜沟煤矿矿井涌水量的预测,以期为采矿行业更好的发展提供相应的参考借鉴。
The coal mine production design department needs to accurately predict the mine water inflow in order to make measures to reduce the amount of water inrush from the mine, determine the drainage capacity of the mine and prevent the flooding of the mine water inrush. However, the mine influx is influenced by the precipitation, surface water, Hydrogeological conditions, mining conditions and other factors, often showing a greater randomness and volatility. As an uncertain system theory, the gray theory GM (1,1) avoids the influence of various complicated factors. The dynamic prediction model can be established by the small sample data and the model calculation method is flexible, which can effectively predict the inflow of coal mine . Based on this theory, the prediction of gushing water of Xiegou coal mine is carried out to provide reference for the better development of mining industry.