本文运用计量分析工具,考察了1978-2009年山东省税收变动和经济波动情况,运用协整检验方法分析了二者之间的关系,发现二者之间不存在长期稳定的均衡关系。通过三线段回归模型分析了影响山东省税收增长的政策和征管等其他因素,进而解释了山东省经济因素不是税收增长最重要因素的现象。 In this paper, we use econometric tools to examine the tax changes and economic fluctuations in Shandong Province from 1978 to 2009, and use the cointegration test to analyze the relationship between the two. We find that there is no long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the two. Through the three-line regression model, it analyzes other factors that affect the tax revenue growth in Shandong Province and other factors such as collection and management, and then explains the phenomenon that Shandong’s economic factors are not the most important factor of tax revenue growth.