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由于增值税和营业税的间接税性质,对于高达1万亿的营改增减税,居民几乎感受不到。如此大规模的减税究竟对我国居民收入分配有何影响?本文以间接税归宿的一般均衡理论为基础,通过构建可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,对基尼系数、MT指数、累进性指数等重要指标进行测算与分解。研究显示,营改增后,居民平均税收负担下降1.63%,居民平均收入上升1.57%,消费品平均价格下降1.33%,但不同居民从中受益不同。营改增后,全国、城镇和农村的基尼系数均下降,收入分配得到改善。改革对收入分配产生一个不利的影响:增值税的累退性增加。但由于平均税率下降对收入分配的正效应,抵消了增值税累退性增加的不利影响,二者综合后收入分配得到改善,营改增后平均税率下降是收入分配得到改善的最重要因素。最后,本文建议,中国应降低食品和药品等生活必需品税率,这可进一步降低增值税的累退性和平均税率,从而改善居民收入分配。
Due to the indirect tax nature of value-added tax and business tax, residents can hardly feel the tax reform and tax cut of up to 1 trillion yuan. How does such a large-scale tax reduction affect the income distribution of our residents? Based on the general equilibrium theory of indirect tax return, this paper constructs a CGE model that is important for the Gini coefficient, MT index, progressive index, etc. Indicators for calculation and decomposition. According to the research, the average tax burden on residents dropped by 1.63%, the average income of residents increased by 1.57% and the average price of consumer goods decreased by 1.33%. However, different residents benefited from it differently. After the camp was changed, the Gini coefficient of the whole country, the urban areas and the rural areas decreased and the income distribution improved. The reform has an adverse effect on income distribution: the regressive value-added tax increases. However, the positive effect of the decrease in average tax rate on income distribution offset the unfavorable impact of the regressive increase of value added tax. After the combination of the two increases, the income distribution improves. The decrease of the average tax rate after the increase of the change of business tax is the most important factor for the improvement of income distribution. Finally, this paper suggests that China should reduce the tax rates on necessities such as food and medicine, which can further reduce the regressive value and average tax rate of VAT, so as to improve the income distribution of residents.