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我国宏观经济在2010年成功实现“V型”反弹后,于2011年步入增速下行的区间。2012年上半年,宏观经济不仅延续了2011年逐季回落的趋势,而且在多重因素的持续作用下,呈现出加速回落的态势。欧洲主权债务危机、美国债务上限问题以及全球不平衡的逆转,意味着世界经济步入结构重构和格局转换时期,决定了世界经济改善的步伐不仅十分缓慢,还充满了不确定性。受此影响,我国外部环境将面临持续的外需下滑和资本外逃的冲击,输入性衰退与波动具有中期化的趋势。因此,应关注宏观经济政策短期“稳增长”与中期“调结构”之间的矛盾,短期应利用刺激内需弥补外需的下滑,但刺激力度不宜过大,不宜对宏观经济增速回落做出过激反应,宏观政策的转向不能过猛。一、宏观经济走势预测与分析(一)宏观经济运行的主要特征
After China’s macroeconomy successfully achieved “V-shaped” rebound in 2010, it entered the slowdown of growth in 2011. In the first half of 2012, macroeconomic not only continued the trend of quarterly decline in 2011, but also accelerated the downward trend under the continuous effect of multiple factors. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the issue of the U.S. debt ceiling and the reversal of global imbalances mean that the world economy has entered a period of structural restructuring and structural change, which has not only determined the pace of world economic improvement not only very slowly but also is full of uncertainty. Affected by this, the external environment in our country will face the impact of sustained decline in external demand and capital flight. The recession and volatility of input have a medium-term trend. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the contradiction between macroeconomic policy short-term “steady growth ” and “adjusting structure ” in the short term. We should make use of stimulating domestic demand to make up for the decline of external demand in the short term. However, the stimulus should not be too large, To make an overreaction, the macro-policy shift can not be excessive. First, the macroeconomic trend forecast and analysis (a) the main features of the macroeconomic operation