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探讨了自适应闭环紧急控制技术的高度集中优化的本质及其适用性受模型不确定性的影响。结合工业界在安全防御实践中消化不确定性的实际经验,指出在自适应闭环紧急控制设计中,应充分考虑高度集中优化系统适用的时空条件,复杂大系统闭环控制的框架设计不宜以高度集中优化为唯一设计理念,应在持续改善系统模型精度的同时,寻求摆脱对系统模型精确性依赖的其他方法。建议采用时空分散决策,将不确定性因素可能导致决策错误的风险进行分摊;应重视人在控制决策过程中的作用,并推广实施紧急控制策略适应性的在线校核;应考虑控制目标的弹性化,避免同时追求人为设计的确定性的多个最优目标,并采用风险的观点协调离线和在线预决策。未来应重视人工紧急调度决策支持技术的研究。
The nature of highly centralized optimization of adaptive closed-loop emergency control technology and its applicability are discussed by the model uncertainty. Based on the practical experience of digestion uncertainty in safety defense practice, the author points out that in the design of adaptive closed-loop emergency control, the space-time conditions for highly centralized and optimized system should be fully considered. The design of the framework for closed-loop control of complex large-scale system should not be highly concentrated Optimization as the only design philosophy should seek to get rid of other ways of relying on the accuracy of the system model while continuously improving the accuracy of the system model. It is suggested to use spatiotemporal decentralized decision-making to share the risk that uncertainty may lead to decision-making errors. We should pay attention to the role of human in control decision-making and popularize the online verification of adaptability of emergency control strategies. Avoid multiple objectives that simultaneously seek the certainty of human design and coordinate the offline and online pre-decision using a risk perspective. The future should pay attention to the artificial emergency dispatching decision support technology research.