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收集整理2003—2011年间武汉市职业病诊断资料,形成数据库,应用SPSS软件辅助统计计算,以Logistic和二次方程作为回归模型进行建模拟合,用所得模型预测2012年的发病数。结果显示,武汉市2003—2011年共诊断职业病221例,其中慢性中毒76例、尘肺病64例、急性中毒36例、职业性肿瘤28例、物理因素所致职业病17例;预测2012年度职业病将达到35例,其中慢性中毒将新增13例、尘肺新增13例。提示武汉市职业病发病呈现震荡走高趋势,当前的职业病防控重点在钢铁、建筑、机械等职业病多发的行业,重点监控慢性中毒、尘肺、急性中毒三类高发病。
Collect and sort out the diagnostic data of occupational diseases in Wuhan City from 2003 to 2011 to form a database. SPSS software was used to assist the statistical calculation. Logistic and quadratic equations were used as the regression models for modeling and fitting, and the obtained models were used to predict the incidence in 2012. The results showed that 221 cases of occupational diseases were diagnosed in Wuhan from 2003 to 2011, of which 76 were chronic poisonings, 64 were pneumoconiosis, 36 were acute poisonings, 28 were occupational tumors and 17 were caused by physical factors. The occupational diseases in 2012 Up to 35 cases, of which 13 cases of chronic poisoning will be added, pneumoconiosis increased by 13 cases. Suggesting that occupational diseases in Wuhan showed a trend of rising turbulence. The current occupational disease prevention and control focuses on the occupational disease-prone industries such as steel, construction and machinery, and focuses on monitoring the three types of high incidence of chronic poisoning, pneumoconiosis and acute poisoning.