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运用改进的引力模型,测度1995～2010年间大陆9省市与台湾的贸易成本,并在此基础上进行面板回归分析。结果表明,虽然近年来海峡两岸贸易成本总体呈现下降,但大陆不同省市与台湾贸易成本的绝对值以及下降幅度都存在着很大的差异。两岸经济规模的不断增长降低了贸易成本;两岸贸易成本对地理距离的弹性仍然很大;福建省与台湾的历史联系紧密度较高对该省与台湾的贸易成本影响已经不显著;台湾当局“戒急用忍”的经贸政策对两岸贸易的负面影响较大。研究的主要政策含义在于,海峡两岸可以继续挖掘贸易成本下降的途径促进两岸经济交流与合作以实现共同繁荣。
Using the improved gravitation model, we measure the trade costs of 9 provinces and cities in Mainland China from 1995 to 2010 and conduct panel regression analysis on this basis. The results show that although the overall cross-Strait trade costs have been on the decline in recent years, there is a big difference between the absolute value of trade costs in different provinces and cities in mainland China and the extent of their decline. The ever-increasing economic size of both sides of the Taiwan Strait has reduced the cost of trade; the flexibility of cross-Strait trade costs to geographical distance remains high; the high level of historical ties between Fujian and Taiwan has no significant effect on the trade costs between the province and Taiwan; and the Taiwan authorities The “no wait and for no later option” economic and trade policy has a greater negative impact on cross-Strait trade. The main policy implications of the study lie in the fact that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can continue to tap the path of falling trade costs and promote cross-Strait economic exchanges and cooperation so as to achieve common prosperity.