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本次全球金融危机持续引发人们对宏观经济政策的反思和讨论。作者在2 0 1 0年对宏观经济政策进行了初步反思的基础上,再次对此问题加以探讨,主要涉及三方面内容:一是对货币政策的反思,央行货币政策目标如何确定?如何处理零利率下限?央行应为谁提供流动性?二是对财政政策的反思,高公共负债的风险何在?如何应对财政约束风险?财政巩固的步伐多快为宜?三是对宏观审慎工具的反思,如何综合运用宏观审慎政策和微观审慎政策?现有宏观审慎政策运行效果如何?如何综合运用货币政策和宏观审慎政策?该研究认为宏观经济政策的未来框架仍然模糊,货币政策、财政政策、宏观审慎工具在宏观政策中的相对作用仍在动态发展中,最终情况将取决于实践结果。
The global financial crisis continues to spark people’s rethinking and discussion of macroeconomic policies. On the basis of preliminary reflection on macroeconomic policies in 2010, the author discusses the issue again and mainly deals with three aspects: one is the reflection on monetary policy, and the other is how to determine the objective of central bank’s monetary policy and how to deal with zero Interest rate lower limit? Who should provide the central bank liquidity? Second, the reflection of fiscal policy, the high public debt risk? How to deal with the risk of financial constraints? How fast the fiscal consolidation pace is appropriate? Three is the reflection of macroprudential tools, How to comprehensively use macroprudential policy and micro-prudential policy? How effective is the existing macroprudential policy? How to comprehensively use monetary policy and macroprudential policy? The study suggests that the future framework of macroeconomic policy is still vague. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroprudential The relative role of tools in macroeconomic policies is still evolving, and the end result will depend on the outcome of the practice.