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由于此次次贷危机的爆发造成了巨大破坏,因此对其爆发原因和必然性的探讨一直是学术界争论的焦点。本文尝试从全新的角度出发——以经济周期理论为依据,从开放宏观的视角对次贷危机爆发的原因与必然性做出新的解释。首先,通过对战后美国经济结构演变的分析,探究其经济周期的演化逻辑。其次,分别从短、中、长周期的角度和国际经济格局演变的角度研究次贷危机爆发的原因和必然性。最后,指出美国经济结构的深刻调整和全员劳动生产率的持续提高才是减轻经济危机破坏性与频发性的根本方法。
As the subprime mortgage crisis caused a huge damage, so the reasons for the explosion and the inevitability of inquiry has been the focus of academic debate. This paper attempts to start from a completely new perspective - based on the theory of the economic cycle, to make a new explanation of the reason and necessity of the subprime mortgage crisis from an open macro perspective. First of all, through the post-war analysis of the evolution of the U.S. economic structure, we explore the evolutionary logic of its economic cycle. Secondly, it studies the reasons and inevitability of the subprime mortgage crisis from the short, medium and long-term perspectives and the evolution of the international economic pattern. Finally, it points out that the profound readjustment of the U.S. economic structure and the continuous improvement of the overall labor productivity are the fundamental ways to mitigate the destructive and frequent economic crisis.