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目的:为实际需要的数量特征敏感问题复杂抽样提供可靠有效的调查方法及其统计公式;为制订艾滋病的预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法:采用数理统计学理论方法推导统计公式;对北京市男男性行为(MSM)人群进行实例调查;通过蒙特卡洛模拟,采用SAS编程模拟调查分析100个样本,对本研究的调查方法及其统计公式作信度与效度评价。结果:推导出数量特征敏感问题加法模型下分层三阶段抽样总体均数估计量及其方差的统计公式;北京市MSM人群首次男男性行为的年龄、月不同性伴人数、月性行为次数的均数分别为21.96岁、2.80人、4.85次,其标准误分别为0.127岁、0.096人、0.559次;100个总体均数的95%可信区间均包含模拟总体均数。结论:MSM人群具有艾滋病的高危性行为,应加强其预防控制。本文研究的调查方法及其统计公式具有良好的信度与效度,可用于今后大规模的敏感问题抽样调查。
OBJECTIVE: To provide reliable and effective investigation methods and statistical formulas for the complex sampling of quantitatively sensitive feature problems that are actually needed; to provide a scientific basis for formulating AIDS prevention and control measures. Methods: Statistical formula was deduced by using mathematical statistics theory; Case study was conducted on MSM in Beijing; 100 samples were analyzed by SAS programming simulation through Monte Carlo simulation; and the survey methods and statistics of this study Formula for reliability and validity evaluation. Results: The statistical formula for estimating the population mean of stratified three-stage sampling and its variance under the additive model of number-sensitive features was deduced. The age of first MSM, the number of monthly sexual partners and the number of monthly sexual behaviors in Beijing MSM population The mean errors were 21.96 years, 2.80 persons and 4.85 times, respectively. The standard errors were 0.127 years, 0.096 persons and 0.559 times, respectively. The 95% confidence intervals of 100 overall means included the simulated population mean. Conclusion: The MSM population has AIDS-related high-risk behaviors and its prevention and control should be strengthened. The investigation methods and statistical formulas in this paper have good reliability and validity and can be used for sampling the sensitive issues on a large scale in the future.