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按照政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2情景,将基于区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景与水稻生长模型ORYZA2000相结合,在多年试验数据和模型适宜性验证的基础上,模拟基准时段(1961—1990年)和2011—2050年时段A2、B2情景下的中稻发育期和产量,分析未来气候变化对华中地区中稻的影响。结果表明:1)相对于基准年,未来40年华中地区中稻生育期缩短,A2情景下中稻生育期平均缩短3.5d,B2情景下生育期平均缩短1.3d。其中,生育期缩短4d以上的区域集中在鄂西。2)不考虑CO2肥效作用时,未来40年华中地区中稻产量下降:A2情景下,雨养中稻产量平均减少17.8%,灌溉中稻产量平均减少14.2%;B2情景下,雨养中稻产量平均减少16.4%,灌溉中稻产量平均减少12.7%。A2情景比B2情景减产幅度大,说明升温幅度越大,对中稻负面影响越大。同一情景下,灌溉中稻比雨养中稻减产幅度小,说明灌溉一定程度上能抵消升温的不利影响。3)考虑CO2肥效作用后,未来40年华中地区中稻产量变化趋势不一致:A2情景下,雨养中稻产量平均减少4.3%,灌溉中稻产量平均增加4.3%;B2情景下,雨养中稻和灌溉中稻产量分别增加3.6%、11.8%。4)与不考虑CO2肥效相比,考虑CO2肥效时,A2情景下雨养中稻减产幅度缩小,A2情景灌溉中稻、B2情景雨养中稻、B2情景灌溉中稻均为增产,但增产幅度小于相同情景下的减产幅度,说明CO2肥效一定程度上可提高中稻产量,但不足以抵消升温的负面影响。5)无论是否考虑CO2肥效,雨养还是灌溉,未来气候变化将增加中稻产量的不稳定性,华中地区中稻生产风险加大;灌溉中稻稳定性大于雨养中稻,CO2肥效下稳定性大于无CO2肥效,因此灌溉、CO2肥效是提高区域中稻产量稳定性的有效措施。
According to the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Characteristics of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SRCC), the climate change scenarios based on the regional climate model PRECIS are combined with the ORYZA2000 rice growth model. After many years of experimental data and model fit Based on the validation data, the development period and yield of middle-season rice in the baseline period (1961-1990) and the period of 2011-2050 were simulated, and the effect of future climate change on middle-season rice in central China was analyzed. The results showed as follows: 1) Compared with the base year, the middle-season rice growth period in Central China was shortened in the next 40 years. In the A2 scenario, the middle-season rice growth period was shortened by 3.5 days on average and in the B2 scenario by an average of 1.3 days. Among them, the growth period shorter than 4d concentrated in western Hubei. 2) When the effect of CO2 fertilization is not considered, the yield of middle-aged rice in central China will decline in the next 40 years: under the A2 scenario, the average output of rain-fed middle-aged rice will decrease by 17.8% and that of irrigated middle-aged rice will decrease by 14.2% on average; %, The average yield of irrigated medium rice decreased by 12.7%. A2 scenario than the B2 scenario, a large reduction in output, indicating that the greater the warming rate, the greater the negative impact on rice. In the same scenario, the reduced rate of medium-yield rice irrigation is lower than that of rain-fed middle rice, indicating that irrigation can offset the adverse effect of temperature increase to a certain extent. 3) After considering the effect of CO2 fertilization, the yield trend of middle-aged rice in Huazhong area will be inconsistent in the next 40 years: under the A2 scenario, the average output of rain-fed middle-aged rice will decrease 4.3% and the average output of irrigated middle-aged rice will increase 4.3%; Under the B2 scenario, Output increased by 3.6% and 11.8% respectively. 4) When CO2 fertilizer efficiency was not considered, the reduction of rain-fed medium-sized paddy in A2 scenario was narrowed. Both A2-scenario medium rain paddy, B2-scenario rain-fed middle paddy and B2-scenario irrigated medium paddy crop were increased, but the yield increase was less than the same situation Under the production cuts, indicating that CO2 fertilizer to some extent can increase the yield of medium-sized rice, but not enough to offset the negative effects of warming. 5) Regardless of whether CO2 fertilization is considered, rainfed or irrigated, the future climate change will increase the instability of medium-grain yield, and the risk of middle-season rice production will increase in central China. The stability of middle-irrigated rice will be more stable than rain-fed middle-aged rice, Therefore, irrigation and CO2 fertilizer efficiency are effective measures to improve the stability of middle-season rice yield.