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近年来,中国养猪业价格波动频繁,对整个宏观经济和城乡居民生活造成了严重影响。本文以玉米价格、仔猪价格、生猪价格和猪肉价格组成的养猪业价格系统为研究对象,首先运用动态计量方法揭示各种价格之间的引导关系,然后运用有限分布滞后模型分析养猪业价格传导机制。结果表明,中国养猪业上下游价格传导存在着不超过5个月的时滞,养猪业市场纵向整合度较高。因此,政府应当把玉米价格、生猪价格作为价格监控的重点对象,并且要加强对生猪流通领域的宏观调控力度。
In recent years, the swirling price of China’s pig industry has had a serious impact on the overall macroeconomic and urban and rural life. In this paper, the price system of pigs, which consists of corn price, piglet price, hog price and pork price, is taken as the research object. First, the dynamic measurement method is used to reveal the guiding relationship among various prices. Then the hysteresis model is used to analyze the price of pig breeding Conduction mechanism. The results show that there is a lag of no more than 5 months in the price transmission of the upstream and downstream of China’s pig industry, and the vertical integration of the pig industry is relatively high. Therefore, the government should regard corn price and hog price as the key targets of price monitoring, and should strengthen the macro-control of the circulation of pigs.