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采用综合方法对长江三峡工程永久船闸二闸室至三闸首部分的中隔墩岩体变形规律进行了分析及预测。首先,运用离散单元法与有限单元法等数值模拟方法分析了该段中隔墩岩体分别在施工期和运行期的变形规律。然后,在监测数据的基础上,采用时间序列和灰色系统方法预测了岩体的变形趋势。综合分析结果表明:垂直于闸室轴线的水平位移在开挖完成后基本处于稳定状态,而在运行期有所减少;平行于闸室轴线的水平位移总体向下游发展;而垂直方向的位移先表现为回弹,后发生沉降。
An integrated method was used to analyze and predict the deformation of the middle pier of the permanent lock of the Three Gorges Project from the second lock chamber to the third lock. First of all, by using the discrete element method and the finite element method and other numerical simulation methods, the deformation laws of the pier rock mass in the construction period and the operation period respectively are analyzed. Then, based on the monitoring data, the deformation trend of rock mass is predicted by time series and gray system method. The results of the comprehensive analysis show that the horizontal displacement perpendicular to the axis of the lock chamber is basically stable after excavation and decreases during the operation period. The horizontal displacement parallel to the axis of the lock chamber is generally developed downstream, while the displacement in the vertical direction The performance of a rebound, after the settlement.