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目的探讨GM(1,1)模型、趋势外推模型和残差自回归模型在我国育龄妇女人数预测中的应用,为了解我国育龄妇女人数变化趋势提供依据。方法收集1990-2013年我国育龄妇女人数的资料,采用SPSS 13.0、SAS 9.3和EViews8.0建立相应的模型,并对2014-2025年我国育龄妇女人数进行预测。结果分别建立了GM(1,1)模型、趋势外推模型和残差自回归模型,平均相对误差均小于5%,并使用趋势外推模型对2014-2025年我国育龄妇女人数进行了预测,2017年我国育龄妇女人数开始出现负增长。结论趋势外推模型对我国育龄妇女人数的拟合精度较高,预测效果可靠。
Objective To explore the application of GM (1,1) model, trend extrapolation model and residual autoregressive model in predicting the number of women of childbearing age in our country and provide the basis for understanding the changing trend of the number of women of childbearing age in our country. Methods The data of the number of women of childbearing age in China from 1990 to 2013 were collected. The corresponding models were established by SPSS 13.0, SAS 9.3 and EViews 8.0, and the number of women of childbearing age in 2014-2025 was predicted. Results The GM (1,1) model, the trend extrapolation model and the residual autoregressive model were established. The average relative errors were all less than 5%. The number of women of childbearing age in 2014-2025 was predicted using the trend extrapolation model. In 2017, the number of women of childbearing age in China began to show negative growth. Conclusion The trend extrapolation model has a higher fitting accuracy for the number of women of childbearing age in our country and the prediction effect is reliable.