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以17个气象站1960—2012年的观测资料,利用趋势分析,Mann-Kendall检验,Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了石家庄地区气温稳定通过10℃的农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明:近53年气温稳定通过10℃的初日以1.4d/10a的趋势提前,终日以1.1d/10a的趋势后延,持续日数以2.5d/10a的趋势增加,积温以64.5℃·d/10a的趋势增加,降水量无明显变化,日照时数以53.4h/10a的趋势减少;各要素的时间序列除降水外均存在不同程度的突变,终日、持续日数、积温以及日照时数的突变较为显著,终日在2007年后后延显著,持续日数在1998年后显著增多,积温在2000年后显著增加,日照时数在1993年后显著减少;通过Morlet小波分析发现,各要素在近53年中存在周期性变化规律,初日和期间积温存在准2~4年的振荡周期,终日存在准2~3年的振荡周期,持续日数存在准2年的振荡周期。降水量存在准3年和准3~7年的振荡周期,日照时数存在准2~3年的振荡周期。石家庄地区气温稳定通过10℃的农业气候资源变化使作物的生长发育提前,生长周期变短,日照时数减少对作物生长有一定的不利影响。
Based on the observation data of 17 weather stations from 1960 to 2012, the characteristics of climate change in Shijiazhuang through 10 ℃ climate were analyzed by trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that in the past 53 years The temperature was stable at the first day of 10 ℃ and the trend of 1.1d / 10a was postponed. The continuous days increased with the trend of 2.5d / 10a, and the accumulated temperature increased with the trend of 64.5 ℃ · d / 10a. There was no significant change in precipitation, and the duration of sunshine hours decreased with the trend of 53.4h / 10a. The time series of each factor except for precipitation varied with different degrees. The changes of daily, continuous days, accumulated temperature and sunshine duration were significant. After 2007, the number of persistent days increased significantly after 1998, while the accumulated temperature increased significantly after 2000, and the number of sunshine hours decreased significantly after 1993. According to Morlet wavelet analysis, the periodicity of each element in the past 53 years The variation law, the first and the last accumulated temperature exist quasi 2 ~ 4 years of oscillation period, the existence of quasi-2 to 3 years all the oscillation period, the duration of the existence of quasi-2-year oscillation period. Precipitation exists quasi-3 and quasi-3-7 years of the oscillation period, the existence of the quasi-2 to 3 years of sunshine hours oscillation period. Stable temperature in Shijiazhuang through crop climate changes at 10 ℃ crop growth and development ahead of schedule, shorter growth cycle, reduced sunshine hours on crop growth have some adverse effects.