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条件价值法是评估非市场产品价值的最重要方法,在环境与资源价值评估中得到广泛的应用,预测有效性是条件价值研究中最为核心的内容。论文在对环境与资源项目条件价值评估预测有效性实证研究回顾与分析的基础上,初步总结了导致CV有效性差的主要原因,认为无收入限制、温暖光辉以及“答非所问”等诸多原因均来自市场的虚拟性。介绍了提高CV预测有效性的三类主要措施,即事前措施、事后措施及事间措施。同时分析了CV预测有效性表达方式的局限性,提出应合理看待CV预测有效性的结果。
Conditional value method is the most important method to evaluate the value of non-market products. It has been widely used in environmental and resource value assessment. Prediction validity is the most important content in the study of conditional value. Based on the review and analysis of the empirical research on the validity of environmental and resource projects’ condition value assessment and forecasting, the paper summarizes the main reasons leading to the poor CV effectiveness, and concludes that there are many reasons such as no income limitation, warmth, and “non-questioning” Virtuality from the market. This paper introduces three main measures to improve the effectiveness of CV prediction: ex ante measures, ex post measures and inter measures. At the same time, the limitation of the expression of CV prediction effectiveness is analyzed, and the result that CV prediction effectiveness should be reasoned should be reasonable.