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为探索当较大交通事故发生时交通事故信息对小汽车出行者出行路径选择行为的影响,基于RP与SP调查数据,首先对小汽车出行者在交通事故发生时不改变路径的原因及在不同事故信息度下的路径选择意向进行了分析。然后建立了3种情况下的二值Logistic路径选择模型,并进行了对比研究。最后运用SPSS软件对模型参数进行了标定和检验。结果表明:交通事故信息度对小汽车出行者出行路径的选择行为具有显著影响,随着交通事故信息度的增加,出行者改变出行路径的概率也会增加;交通事故信息发布时间越早,出行者改变出行路径的概率越大;详细交通事故信息对于保守性格者、弹性出行者具有更显著的引导作用。
In order to explore the impact of traffic accident information on the travel route selection behavior of car travelers when a major traffic accident occurs, based on the RP and SP survey data, the reason why the car traveler did not change the route when the traffic accident occurs is firstly analyzed. The intention of route selection under accident information degree was analyzed. Then we establish a binary Logistic path selection model under the three conditions and make a comparative study. Finally, the model parameters were calibrated and verified by SPSS software. The results show that the degree of traffic accident has a significant effect on the choice of travel paths for car travelers. With the increase of traffic information degree, the probability of travelers changing their travel routes will also increase. The earlier the traffic accident information is released, The greater the probability of changing the travel path; the more detailed traffic accident information has a more significant guiding role for the conservative personality and the flexible traveler.