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2011年拉美和加勒比地区形势保持相对平稳,其基本发展趋势没有改变。政治形势在稳定中有变化,选民更加务实,民生主导政治将成趋势,顺应民心的调整将成为常态,在变与不变中保持平衡成为拉美政治稳定的挑战。2012年墨西哥和委内瑞拉大选将对地区政治产生重要影响。拉美经济持续增长,宏观经济继续保持稳定,“反周期”政策作用明显。未来,拉美经济仍面临通胀和结构性调整的压力,欧债危机对拉美实体经济的影响不容忽视,世界经济低迷常态化将会带来新挑战,个别国家和地区经济内在矛盾有可能激化。社会形势喜忧参半,就业和收入有所改善,极端贫困人口增加,毒品、有组织犯罪和暴力问题依然突出,部分国家印第安人自身利益与政府开发资源、发展经济的矛盾将有可能成为新的社会问题。对外关系基本格局未变,新的变化正在出现,区域合作分层化和自贸区板块化的趋势显现,地区主义出现不同选项,对外关系面临新的调整。
The situation in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2011 remained relatively stable, and its basic development trend has not changed. The political situation has changed in stability. The voters are more pragmatic. People’s livelihood-led politics will become a trend. Adaptation to the adjustment of the people will become the norm. Balancing between changing and immovable will be the challenge of political stability in Latin America. The 2012 Mexican and Venezuelan elections will have a major impact on regional politics. Latin American economy continued to grow, the macroeconomy continued to be stable, and the “countercyclical” policy played an obvious role. In the future, the Latin American economy will still face the pressure of inflation and structural adjustment. The impact of the European debt crisis on the real economy in Latin America can not be ignored. The normalization of the world economic downturn will bring new challenges and the inherent contradictions in the economy of individual countries and regions may intensify. Mixed social situation, improved employment and income, an increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty, and the problems of drugs, organized crime and violence are still outstanding. The conflicts between the interests of Indians in some countries and the development of resources and the development of economy by the government will likely become new social issues . The basic pattern of external relations has not changed. New changes are emerging. The tendency of stratification of regional cooperation and the expansion of the free trade area shows that there are various options for regionalism and the foreign relations are facing new adjustments.