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供需因素、货币因素、投机炒作因素和新兴经济体因素是影响国际铜价的四个主要因素。在新兴经济体因素中,中国作为世界第二大经济体和全球重要的精铜供需市场,有极大的代表性和影响力。随着中国经济的发展,中国因素成为中国对于国际期货交易市场综合影响的代名词。本文以伦敦金属交易所铜价交易统计数据为基础,研究自1995年起至2013年近20年间的铜价走势图,结合供求理论,解析在2008年金融危机中,中国因素中中国市场供给与需求因素对于铜价的影响,同时分析在中国经济发展放缓背景下国际铜价的走势。提出了在工业经济低速增长阶段中国铜矿工业发展的三条建议:推动铜矿山兼并重组,加快企业技术改造,加大铜矿企业走出去力度。
Supply and demand factors, monetary factors, speculative speculation factors and emerging economies are the four major factors affecting international copper prices. Among the factors of emerging economies, China, as the second largest economy in the world and the world’s major copper supply and demand market, has great representation and influence. With the development of China’s economy, the Chinese factor has become synonymous with China’s comprehensive influence on the international futures market. Based on the statistics of copper trading in the London Metal Exchange, this paper studies the copper price trend from 1995 to 2013 in the past 20 years. Based on the theory of supply and demand, we analyze the supply and demand factors of the Chinese market in the 2008 financial crisis The impact of copper prices, while analyzing the slowdown in China’s economic development in the context of international copper prices. Put forward three proposals on the development of China’s copper industry during the period of slow industrial economic growth: promoting the merger and reorganization of copper mines, speeding up the technological transformation of enterprises and increasing the efforts of Chinese copper mines to go global.