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运用Multinomial Logit(MNL)模型,以长江三角洲港口为例,从港口和承运人两方面综合考虑,提出由港口和承运人不同组合而形成的各种选择方案,计算了托运人对各种方案的选择概率和各个港口的市场份额,并进一步分析各个因素的影响程度以及港口市场份额对这些因素变化的弹性程度。旨在为托运人合理选择港口和降低运输成本、为港口正确制定经营策略和合理明确自身定位提供一定的参考依据。
Taking Multinomial Logit (MNL) model as an example, taking the Yangtze River Delta port as an example, from the perspective of the port and the carrier, this paper puts forward various options for the different combinations of port and carrier, Choose the probability and the market share of each port, and further analyze the degree of influence of each factor and the elasticity of port market share to the changes of these factors. The purpose is to provide a certain reference for the shipper to select the port rationally and to reduce the transportation cost, and to provide the port a proper reference for formulating the business strategy and establishing a reasonable and definite position for itself.