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2016年一季度,中国经济处在“多空博弈”的关键阶段,经济表现“喜忧参半”。受外需疲弱、传统行业去产能、消费放缓等因素影响,经济下行压力依然较大;同时,投资回升、PPI降幅收窄等因素将有助于经济企稳。估测一季度GDP增长6.6%左右。展望二季度,一批“十三五”规划重大项目将逐步启动,专项建设基金、PPP项目加快推进有利于促进投资增长。由于今年加大了去产能力度,工业增长将低位运行,但结构会继续改善,节能环保、信息通讯、高端装备等新兴产业将继续较快增
In the first quarter of 2016, China’s economy is in a crucial stage of “long and short game.” Economic performance is “mixed”. Affected by the sluggish external demand, the de-manufacturing capacity of the traditional industries and the slowdown in consumption, the downward pressure on the economy will remain strong. Meanwhile, such factors as investment recovery and narrowing of the PPI will help stabilize the economy. Estimated first quarter GDP growth of about 6.6%. Looking forward to the second quarter, a number of major projects under the “Thirteen Five-Year Plan” will be gradually launched. Special fund-raising projects and the acceleration of PPP projects are conducive to boosting investment growth. Due to the intensification of capacity-to-productivity this year, industrial growth will be at a low level but the structure will continue to improve. Emerging industries such as energy conservation and environmental protection, information and telecommunications, and high-end equipment will continue to grow rapidly