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目的探索乌鲁木齐市2009-2013年肺结核发病状况的空间分布、时空聚集及影响因素,为制定肺结核防控策略提供理论依据。方法利用地理信息系统(GIS)及空间扫描技术对乌鲁木齐市2009-2013年肺结核发病状况进行空间分布及时空聚集性分析,并利用最小二乘回归法(OLS)探索影响乌鲁木齐市肺结核报告发病率的因素。结果乌鲁木齐市2009-2013年肺结核报告发病率整体呈下降趋势;全局空间分布自2010年后呈现随机分布;局部自相关及SCAN结果表明,2009-2011年存在局部时空聚集,类型为高-高相关(H-H相关)和低-高相关(L-H相关),且主要集中区域为乌鲁木齐市边缘地区,但2012年及2013年局部时空聚集性消失;影响乌鲁木齐市肺结核报告发病率的因素主要有医疗卫生资源状况(包括医疗卫生机构数、卫技人员数、床位数)、人口密度、就业状况、经济状况(主要为人均收入)。结论乌鲁木齐市肺结核报告发病率空间分布趋于随机分布;时空聚集性逐年减弱;除空间因素外,主要影响因素为医疗卫生资源状况、人口密度、就业状况及经济状况。
Objective To explore the spatial distribution, spatial and temporal aggregation of pulmonary tuberculosis in Urumqi from 2009 to 2013 and its influencing factors, and to provide a theoretical basis for the development of tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. Methods Spatial distribution and spatio-temporal aggregation of pulmonary tuberculosis in Urumqi from 2009 to 2013 were analyzed by GIS and spatial scanning techniques. The incidence of tuberculosis in Urumqi was explored by least squares regression (OLS) factor. Results The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis reported in Urumqi from 2009 to 2013 showed an overall downward trend. The global spatial distribution showed a random distribution since 2010. Local autocorrelation and SCAN showed that there was local space-time aggregation in 2009-2011, with high-high correlation (HH-related) and low-high correlation (LH-related), and the main concentration area is the marginal area of Urumqi, but the spatial and temporal aggregation disappears in 2012 and 2013. The main factors that affect the incidence of tuberculosis in Urumqi are the medical and health resources Status (including the number of health care institutions, health workers, number of beds), population density, employment status, economic status (mainly per capita income). Conclusion The spatial distribution of reported tuberculosis in Urumqi tends to be randomly distributed. The space-time aggregation declines year by year. In addition to spatial factors, the main influencing factors are health resources, population density, employment status and economic status.