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学界对于交通事故高峰出现在交通高峰期还是之后的消散期存在争论,以惠州市中心城区为例,对城市交通事故进行研究,判别交通消散期事故高峰现象的存在性。以交通事故空间点数据为研究对象,使用核心密度估算法,分析交通事故的结构性特征和时空分布特征,并针对三个交通消散期研究其事故的具体特征及其成因。研究表明:惠州市中心城区交通消散期存在事故高峰现象,主要发生在上午和下午;机动车在交通事故中占主导地位;临近商业设施的交通消散期事故高峰现象最为明显;支路事故在晚间交通消散期后段出现了事故高峰;从上午到晚上,交通事故黑点从交通相关设施转移到商业设施。交通消散期事故高峰现象的形成与居民集中在交通消散期的非通勤交通行为、特定路段的小时交通量高峰出现在交通消散期,以及交通消散期内松懈的交通管制和驾驶行为等有一定的关系。
There is controversy in the academic circles about whether the traffic accident peak appears in the dissipation period after the traffic peak or afterward. Taking Huizhou downtown area as an example, the author studies the urban traffic accident to determine the existence of the peak accident in the traffic dissipation period. Taking the data of traffic accident space as the research object, the core density estimation method is used to analyze the structural characteristics and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of traffic accidents. The specific characteristics of the accident and its causes are studied for three traffic dissipation periods. The research shows that there is an accident peak in the traffic dissipating period in the central urban area of Huizhou City, which occurs mainly in the morning and afternoon. The motor vehicles occupy the leading position in the traffic accidents. The traffic accident near the commercial facilities has the most obvious peak accidents. Traffic accident period occurred after the peak of the accident; from morning to night, black spots from traffic-related facilities transferred to commercial facilities. The formation of the peak of traffic dispel accident and the concentration of residents in non-commuting traffic during the traffic dissipating period, the peak of hourly traffic of certain sections appeared in the period of traffic dissipation and lax traffic control and driving behavior in the traffic dissipating period, etc. relationship.