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目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法。方法:在建立传染病传播动力学模型的基础上,采用Van guard DecisionPro软件中的Markov模型方法模拟疾病流行,以北京SARS流行模拟及模型的抽象研究为例说明其应用。结果:DecisionPro Markov模型可以直观地描述疾病传播动力学模型。在Markov模型中,各模型参数取值可以随时调整,并可通过编程实现;可以观察模型状态变量的实时变化,预测疾病的流行趋势;通过敏感性分析功能,可以研究模型变量之间相互作用的规律;通过想定研究方法,可以定量评价输入参数变化对流行的影响。实例研究发现,该方法很适合流行模拟研究,可以用于干预措施效果的定量评价。结论:DecisionPro Markov模型方法是一种较为理想的模拟疾病流行的方法,可以用于传播动力学模型的抽象研究。
Objective: To establish a method of simulating epidemiology in the study of disease transmission dynamics. Methods: Based on the establishment of epidemiological model of infectious diseases, the Markov model in Van guard DecisionPro software was used to simulate the epidemic. The application of epidemiological simulation and model abstraction in Beijing was illustrated. Results: DecisionPro Markov model can intuitively describe the disease propagation dynamics model. In Markov model, the value of each model parameter can be adjusted at any time, and can be programmed to achieve; you can observe the real-time changes in the state variables of the model to predict the epidemic trend of the disease; through sensitivity analysis, you can study the interaction between model variables By determining the research method, the influence of the change of input parameters on the epidemic can be quantitatively evaluated. The case study shows that this method is suitable for epidemiological studies and can be used to evaluate the effects of interventions. Conclusion: The DecisionPro Markov model method is an ideal method to simulate the epidemic and can be used for the abstract research of propagation dynamics model.