目的 :应用系统综合集成预测法探讨洪灾后急感的发病趋势 .方法 :由果及因建立急感构成比数学模型和灰色数列 GM( 1 ,1 )模型 ,分别对 1 998年洪灾后急感发病趋势进行预测 ,并由此进行灾变预测 .结果 :急感呈逐年下降趋势 ,洪灾年份急感发病最多 ,表明洪灾期间易导致急感的大量流行 ;应用综合集成预测洪灾后急感的发病趋势 ,方法简便 ,精度较高 ;文中模型具有广泛性 ,可用于其它方面的预测 Objective: To explore the trend of the incidence of post-flood emergency with method of integrated forecasting method.Methods: The etiology of post-flood post-flood emergency by the mathematical model and gray sequence GM (1, 1) The trend of occurrence was predicted, and then the catastrophic prediction was carried out.Results: The sensation showed a declining trend year by year, with the highest incidence of acute episodes in flood years, indicating that epidemics were easy to cause panic during floods; , The method is simple and the precision is high. The model in this paper is extensive and can be used for other prediction