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综合运用贝叶斯估计、二阶矩比较、脉冲响应、方差分解、历史分解和反事实仿真等方法进行研究后发现:在引入了金融摩擦和金融冲击的情况下,1)利率规则造成的福利损失明显大于数量规则.2)就应对负向金融冲击的效果而言,数量规则的效果优于利率规则的效果.3)金融冲击是驱动我国经济周期波动的最重要力量,金融冲击在利率规则和数量规则下对我国产出波动的解释度分别为40.54%和38.95%.4)货币政策规则的选择对我国宏观经济的总体运行具有很大影响,且对通货膨胀的影响要大于对产出的影响.5)在我国利率尚未完全市场化且存在金融冲击的情况下,我国央行应更多地采用货币政策数量规则调控经济.
After comprehensively using the methods of Bayesian estimation, second moment comparison, impulse response, variance decomposition, historical decomposition and counterfactual simulation, it is found that under the circumstance of introducing financial friction and financial shocks, 1) the welfare caused by interest rate rules The loss is obviously larger than the quantitative rule.2) The quantitative rule is better than the interest rate rule to deal with the negative financial impact.3) The financial shock is the most important force to drive the fluctuation of the economic cycle in our country, And the quantitative rules of China’s output volatility were 40.54% and 38.95%, respectively.4) The choice of monetary policy rules has a great impact on the overall macroeconomic performance of our country, and the impact on inflation is greater than the output .5) In our country, interest rates have not been fully marketized and financial shocks exist, the central bank of our country should adopt more quantitative rules of monetary policy to control the economy.