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根据人工智能领域中专家系统的基本原理,初步建立了棉花红铃虫种群动态预测的知识库系统。知识库由历年红铃虫发生消长和为害、气象因素和棉花生育资料,以及国家“六·五”、“七·五”棉花病虫害综防攻关研究成果和有关专家积累的红铃虫管理实践经验等知识组成。系统以反向推理和不精确推理策略作红铃虫种群的发生期和发生程度的预测。发生程度的预测分5个等级:低、偏低、中、偏高和高。对时间系统预测符合率在95％以上。
According to the basic principle of expert system in the field of artificial intelligence, a knowledge base system of cotton bollworm population dynamics was preliminarily established. The knowledge base consists of the growth and damage of the pink bollworm, the meteorological factors and the cotton reproductive information, as well as the research results of the “June 5” and “July 5” cotton pest and disease control and the accumulated management experience of pink bollworm Such as knowledge. The system predicts the occurrence period and the occurrence degree of the pink bollworm population by reverse reasoning and inaccurate reasoning strategy. Predict the degree of occurrence in five grades: low, low, medium, high and high. The prediction accuracy of the time system is above 95%.