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基于黑龙江省10个农业气象观测站1980～2008年地面观测田平行观测资料和逐日气象资料,运用数理统计方法,分析了研究区影响大豆生产的主要气候要素的时空变化规律以及气候变化对大豆发育和产量的影响。结果表明:研究区总体气候变化表征为暖干化趋势,即热量增加,生长季平均气温升高,无霜期延长,开花至成熟期降水减少,鼓粒至成熟期日照增加,且区域间存在差异,南部地区光热资源增加明显。不同区域、不同发育期,大豆对气候响应均存在差异,总体上,大豆播种期、出苗期和三叶期无明显变化,但西部地区异常提前;开花期呈提前趋势,三叶至开花期间日数缩短,北部和中部缩短明显;结荚期、鼓粒期和成熟期略有提前,增温是导致大豆发育期提前的主要原因之一。在一定阈值内,大豆单产随着生长季平均气温的升高而增加,说明一定程度的增温对大豆产量有正效应。因此,气候暖干化趋势对大豆生产的影响是利弊兼存,在选择品种、引进品种、种植布局等方面应给予重点关注。
Based on the observational data and daily meteorological data of 10 agrometeorological observatories from 1980 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, the temporal and spatial variation of the main climatic elements influencing soybean production in the study area were analyzed by using mathematical statistics. The effects of climate change on soybean development And the impact of production. The results show that: the overall climate change in the study area is characterized by the trend of warm-drying, that is, the increase of heat, the increase of average temperature during the growing season, the prolongation of frost-free period, the decrease of precipitation from flowering to maturity, the increase of sunshine from drumming to maturity, Light and heat resources in southern regions increased significantly. In different regions and different developmental stages, the response of soybean to climate varied. In general, there was no significant change in soybean sowing, emergence and trefoil stages, but the anomalies were earlier in western China. The trend of flowering was earlier and the number of days from clover to flowering Shortened significantly in the northern and central shortened; podding stage, drumming stage and mature slightly ahead of time, warming is one of the main reasons leading to soybean development. Within a certain threshold, soybean yield increased with the average temperature of the growing season, indicating that a certain degree of warming has a positive effect on soybean yield. Therefore, the trend of climate warming and drying on the impact of soybean production is the pros and cons of coexist, in the choice of species, the introduction of varieties, planting layout should give the key attention.