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本文从掌握的青海半干旱农业区-“河湟”谷地部分气象资料出发，建立地区蒸发量与年平均气温间的回归方程，探讨全球变化后这些地区干燥指数状况可能发生的改变。现今40年来，该区域干暖与湿冷相配合；气温超暖化并非明显，但干燥指数有所上升，区域向湿润发展。当设定未来平均气温升高2℃，降水量增加10％时，青海半干旱农业区，在未来气候情景下蒸发量的增加比降水的增加来得快，将导致干旱胁迫加重。但降水量增加20％时，干燥指数有所上升，干旱现象可得到缓解。
Based on the partial meteorological data in Hep Valley of Qinghai, a semi-arid agricultural area in Qinghai, the regression equation between regional evapotranspiration and annual average temperature is established to discuss possible changes of the drying index in these areas after the global change. In the past 40 years, the region’s dry-warm and wet-cold co-ordination; temperature super-warming is not obvious, but the drying index increased, the region to the wet development. When the future average temperature is set to increase by 2 ℃ and the precipitation increase by 10%, the increase of evaporation in the future semi-arid agricultural area will be faster than that of precipitation in the future climate scenario, which will lead to the increase of drought stress. However, when the rainfall increases by 20%, the drying index will increase and the drought will be alleviated.