文章结合农村公路的发展前景,分析了农村公路交通量预测的重要性,并针对云南省农村公路交通量预测的现状,提出了基于四阶段法的农村公路网络分析法模型。通过分析和调查研究对象,本模型将交通量产生与公路影响区和服务区内人口、经济指标联系起来,填补了定基预测法的不足,为广大农村公路建设提供理论依据。 Combining the development prospects of rural roads, the paper analyzes the importance of road traffic volume forecast in rural areas and proposes a rural road network analysis method model based on the four-stage method in order to forecast the traffic volume of rural road in Yunnan Province. Through analyzing and investigating the object of study, this model links the traffic volume with the population and economic indicators in the road affected area and service area, and fills in the deficiency of the fixed foundation forecasting method, which provides the theoretical basis for the vast rural road construction.