针对电牵引采煤机牵引部驱动轮轴故障数据非常有限的问题,建立了Weibayes模型进行可靠性预估。结合采煤机的工作环境和失效机理,利用先验知识对威布尔形状参数β进行定义。根据故障数据选取合理的参数估计方法和置信方式,将β与有限的故障数据输入RELEX可靠性软件进行分析,得到不可靠度随时间变化的函数图像,给出了驱动轮轴的检修及更换策略。 Aiming at the very limited problem of driving shaft failure data of traction unit of electric haulage shearer, a Weibayes model was established for reliability estimation. Combining with the working environment and failure mechanism of shearer, the Weibull shape parameter β is defined by prior knowledge. According to the fault data, a reasonable parameter estimation method and confidence method are selected, and β and finite fault data are input into the RELEX reliability software to obtain the function image of the unreliability with time. The maintenance and replacement strategy of the drive axle is given.