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开放经济条件下调整经济结构和转变经济发展方式,应重视汇率变动带来的经济效应,特别是人民币升值带来的产业结构调整效应。以文化贸易的地区结构为主要关注对象,本文基于拓展的引力模型,对包括美国、欧洲和日本等16个国家和地区的贸易对象的进出口结构进行了分析,主要结论显示:第一,人民币升值对我国文化贸易地区结构的影响存在不同的“方向效应”和“数量效应”。第二,人民币升值总体而言增加了我国文化贸易的净出口,因而有利于改善文化贸易逆差的状况。第三,人民币汇率变动引致的文化贸易结构调整过程具有明显的“非对称性”特征,即我国与贸易伙伴国对于彼此的文化产品存在需求上的“非对称性”。
Under the condition of opening economy, adjusting the economic structure and changing the mode of economic development should pay attention to the economic effects brought by the exchange rate changes, especially the industrial restructuring brought by the appreciation of the renminbi. Taking the regional structure of cultural trade as the main concern, this paper analyzes the import and export structure of trade partners including 16 countries and regions in the United States, Europe and Japan based on the extended gravitation model. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the RMB The impact of appreciation on the structure of China’s cultural trade there are different “direction effect” and “quantity effect”. Second, as a whole, the appreciation of the renminbi has increased the net exports of China’s cultural trade and thus helped to improve the situation of the trade deficit with China. Third, the structural adjustment of cultural trade caused by changes in the exchange rate of RMB has the characteristic of “asymmetry”, that is, the “asymmetry” in demand between our country and our trading partners for each other’s cultural products.