为研究参数不确定性对于地裂缝扩张及发展的影响,利用FLAC~(3D)建模,模拟在地裂缝两侧土体不同时抽取地下水情况下地裂缝变化情况。以地裂缝两侧水平位移、垂直位移、地裂缝活动量为参数敏感性分析的目标,并通过均匀设计法对断裂粘聚力、断裂内摩擦角等5个参数进行了多次交叉运算,快速准确地判断了参数敏感度大小。研究表明,参数变化对地裂缝活动量及上盘垂直位移影响较大;内摩擦角为影响地裂缝最敏感的因素。研究结果为今后地裂缝的治理提供了参考依据。 In order to study the influence of parameter uncertainty on ground fissure expansion and development, FLAC 3D modeling was used to simulate the variation of ground fissures when groundwater was not extracted at both sides of ground fissures. Taking the horizontal displacements, vertical displacements and ground fissures on both sides of the ground fissure as the parameter sensitivity analysis targets, five parameters of fracture cohesion and fracture internal friction angle were cross-intersected by uniform design method, Accurately determine the size of the parameter sensitivity. The results show that the change of parameters has a great influence on the ground fissure activity and the vertical displacement of the upper plate. The internal friction angle is the most sensitive factor affecting the ground fissures. The results provide a reference for the future management of ground fissures.