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提出一套系统的人因飞行事故诱发因素的分析和Bootstrap预测仿真的方法。首先,在“瑞士奶酪”模型基础上构建空军某机种的人因飞行事故诱因分析分类体系;然后,在此基础上采用数据挖掘技术辨识重要的单诱因、两两诱因组合及诱发模式;最后,使用Bootstrap分析方法对辨识出的单诱因、两两诱因组合及诱发模式执行预测仿真,并据此制订出针对性强、易于操作的预防策略。研究成果可为指导和加强安全管理,保证飞行安全提供决策参考依据。
A set of systematic human-caused flight accident inducing factor analysis and Bootstrap predictive simulation method are proposed. Firstly, based on the model of “Swiss Cheese”, this paper builds a classification system of causes of flight accident caused by a certain type of Air Force. Based on this, we use data mining technology to identify important single inducement, combination of two inducement and evoked mode Finally, using the Bootstrap analysis method to predict the simulation of the identified single inducement, the combination of two inducement and the induced mode, and then to develop a targeted and easy-to-operate prevention strategy. The research results can provide reference for decision-making in guiding and strengthening safety management and ensuring flight safety.