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旱灾是影响我国农业最严重的自然灾害。近10多年来我国每年有170~200万hm2农田遭受不同程度的旱灾,造成了巨大的损失,威胁着国家的粮食安全。然而,农业旱灾对我国粮食产量影响的定量分析尚未见有人研究。提出了一个衡量旱灾强度的定量模型,建立了旱灾粮食损失的估算方法,并对全国及各省区近10多年来的旱灾粮食损失进行了评估,定量分析了农业旱灾对我国粮食安全的影响程度,建立了旱灾强度与灾害粮食损失之间的时空数量关系。结果表明,旱灾对我国粮食安全的影响较为显著,1990-2005年间我国平均旱灾强度达13.8%,平均每年因旱灾导致的粮食损失达到2600万t,对国家粮食安全的影响为8%左右;粮食损失量可满足6000万人,相当于一个大省如河北省人口的需要。因此,加强农业旱灾监测评价,积极进行农业抗旱减灾,是保障国家粮食安全的重要措施。
Drought is the most serious natural disaster affecting agriculture in our country. In the past 10 years or so, about 1.7-2 million hm2 of farmland have suffered different degrees of drought each year in our country, causing tremendous losses and threatening the country’s food security. However, the quantitative analysis of the impact of agricultural drought on the grain output in our country has not been studied yet. A quantitative model of drought intensity was proposed and a method to estimate the grain loss of drought was established. The assessment of food losses from drought in the past ten years in China and other provinces was carried out. The degree of impact of agricultural drought on food security in China was quantitatively analyzed. The spatial and temporal relationship between drought intensity and disastrous food losses has been established. The results showed that the drought had a significant impact on food security in our country. The average drought intensity in China was 13.8% between 1990 and 2005, with an average of 26 million tons of grain loss due to drought every year and about 8% of the national food security. Grain The loss can meet 60 million people, equivalent to a large province such as Hebei Province’s population needs. Therefore, strengthening agricultural drought monitoring and evaluation and actively carrying out agricultural drought relief and mitigation are important measures to ensure national food security.