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建国以来,我国烤烟生产得到较大的发展,数量上已居世界首位。但经过三次大的起落,形成三个明显的发展阶段。由于生产的不稳定,对保证国内卷烟和出口都曾产生过不利影响。本文利用33年(1950-1982)的统计资料,对我国烤烟生产发展势态作回归分析,试图通过数量描述为生产管理与控制提供一些信息,这也许不是没有意义的。一、生产发展的基本模型从生产发展的总趋势上看,随着时间的推移,生产量在不断增长。这里以时序为自变量,以 T 表示;以全国种植面积、单位面积产量和
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the production of flue-cured tobacco in our country has been greatly expanded, ranking the first in the world in quantity. However, after three major ups and downs, three distinct stages of development took shape. Due to the instability of production, there have been adverse effects on the guarantee of domestic cigarettes and exports. In this paper, we use the statistical data of 33 years (1950-1982) to make regression analysis on the development trend of flue-cured tobacco production in our country and try to provide some information for production management and control through quantity description. This may not make no sense. First, the basic model of production development From the general trend of production development point of view, with the passage of time, production is growing. Timing here as an independent variable to T said; to the national planted area, yield per unit area and