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针对近年我国整体“内需不足”和局部“供不应求”并存的消费结构失衡的不良现象,基于居民收入变迁剧烈的现实,提出了“收入变迁效应说”对这种现象予以解释。通过对AIDS模型放松支出等于收入的假设和包含收入变迁特征的动态性扩展的两点改进,构建了一个新的需求系统模型——AIDS动态扩展模型,测度了收入变迁对消费结构产生的均值、方差和残差三个消费需求效应。其结果验证了“收入变迁效应说”的合理性,结果表明收入变迁均值效应作用的失效导致整体内需不足,方差和残差效应的加强使得个别市场需求旺盛,导致消费结构的失衡出现。
In view of the unhealthy consumption structure imbalances such as “insufficient domestic demand” and “supply shortage” in recent years in our country, we propose the explanation of this phenomenon based on the fact that the income of residents is changing rapidly . By a two-point improvement on the hypothesis that the expenditure of AIDS is equal to income and the dynamic expansion that includes the characteristics of income changes, a new demand system model, namely the AIDS dynamic expansion model, is constructed to measure the mean value of income changes to the consumption structure. Variance and residual three consumer demand effects. The result verifies the rationality of “the effect of income change ”. The result shows that the ineffectiveness of the mean effect of income change leads to the lack of overall domestic demand. The strengthening of variance and residual effect makes the demand of individual markets strong, leading to the imbalance of consumption structure.