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互联网是传统企业转型升级的重要途径,电子商务是互联网的重要应用形式。我国传统贸易下滑与电子商务的高速增长,在一定程度上说明电子商务是我国稳增长的重要途径。但是在电子商务增长时,大量实体经济倒闭,引发社会热议,其中较具代表性的观点是电子商务的极速扩张对传统产业造成了危害。本文正本清源,厘清似是而非的误区,从经济学本源的贸易替代效应和创造效应出发,使用美国线上和线下的零售季度数据,通过协整性检验和格兰杰因果检验的方法证明电子商务对传统产业长期发展发挥了创造效应。最后,本文呼吁在该结论的基础上,待我国电子商务统计数据完善后,对该问题进行更加科学的研判,以期更好地发挥电子商务在“互联网+”战略中的作用。
The Internet is an important way for the transformation and upgrading of traditional enterprises. E-commerce is an important application form of the Internet. The decline of China’s traditional trade and the rapid growth of e-commerce, to some extent, illustrate that e-commerce is an important way for China’s steady growth. However, during the growth of e-commerce, a large number of real economy collapses, triggering social hot debate, the more representative view is that the rapid expansion of e-commerce has caused harm to traditional industries. Based on the trade substitution effect and the creation effect of economic origins, this paper uses the online and offline retail quarterly data of the United States to prove the e-commerce pairwiseness through the cointegration test and Granger causality test The long-term development of traditional industries has played a creative effect. Finally, on the basis of this conclusion, this article calls for a more scientific study on this issue after the improvement of e-commerce statistics in China so as to give full play to the role of e-commerce in the strategy of “Internet +”.