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以地处长江三角洲核心部位的太湖流域为研究区,应用Bootstrap方法预测了各市县至2030年的GDP值,进而基于海面-地面系统演变模型,就海平面上升到2030年对区域经济的影响进行了多场景模拟与评价。结果表明:由于区域内经济发达的市县多处于地势低平的地区,未来海面上升对太湖流域区域经济发展影响极为显著,其影响程度主要取决于各县市地形地貌条件及其经济发展水平。当海面上升值为23 cm、31 cm和60 cm时,受影响面积和GDP损失分别高达13.2%～24.0%和15.7%～26.9%。海面上升影响表现出区域分异的特征,以太湖、长江及其各支流为中心向外扩张,中部平原、洼地受影响较为严重,外围的北部和东部受影响较小。区域未来发展应考虑分区治理及区域内联合策略,以积极应对海面上升的可能威胁。
Taking the Taihu Lake basin which is located at the core of the Yangtze River Delta as a research area, the GDP of each city and county by 2030 is predicted by using Bootstrap method. Then, based on the sea-surface evolution model, the influence of sea level rise to 2030 on the regional economy A multi-scene simulation and evaluation. The results show that due to the fact that most economically developed cities and counties in the region are in low-lying areas, the rising sea level in the future will have a significant impact on the regional economic development in the Taihu Lake Basin. The degree of their impact depends mainly on the topographic and geomorphological conditions of each county and its economic development level. Affected area and GDP loss are as high as 13.2% -24.0% and 15.7% -26.9%, respectively, when the sea surface rises at 23 cm, 31 cm and 60 cm. The rising of the sea surface showed the characteristics of regional differentiation. It expanded outwardly mainly around the Taihu Lake, the Yangtze River and its tributaries. The central plains and the depressions were more seriously affected, while the northern and eastern periphery were less affected. The future development of the region should take into consideration zonal governance and joint tactics in the region so as to actively respond to the possible threat of a rising sea.