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2013年7月10日,草坡磨子沟暴发特大规模泥石流,造成岷江堵塞并淤埋都汶高速,造成巨大的经济损失。为研究此次泥石流堵河特点并预测未来暴发泥石流堵河的可能性,通过分析该沟基本特征,探讨了汶川震后沟内地形地貌、降雨条件及物源变化对泥石流暴发的影响;分析了泥石流动力学特征及不同堵河判别公式计算结果,得出在不同暴雨频率下暴发泥石流可能引起的堵河情况,进而预测了该沟的堵河发展趋势。研究结果表明,震后沟内形成超过7×106 m3的固体物源储量,沟道内形成了大量堵塞体,在强降雨条件下极易暴发泥石流;草坡磨子沟在暴雨频率小于5%时暴发泥石流便可造成堵河事件。
On July 10, 2013, a large-scale debris flow was triggered at Mopokou, Hsiaopo, causing the Minjiang River to become clogged and dredging Duvon Expressway, causing huge economic losses. In order to study the characteristics of this blockage of mudslides and predict the possibility of mudslocks blocking outbreaks in the future, by analyzing the basic features of the ditches, the effects of topography, rainfall conditions and source changes on the outbreaks of debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake- The characteristics of debris flow and the calculation results of different plugging river discrimination formulas, the possible plugging situation of debris flow caused by the outbreak of debris flow at different torrential rain frequencies is obtained, and then the development trend of the plugging river is predicted. The results show that there are a large amount of solid body reserves in the channel after the earthquake and a large number of blockages are formed in the channel, and debris flows are easily triggered under strong rainfall. When the storm frequency is less than 5% Outbreak of mudslides can cause plugging river incident.