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针对空间站物资消耗多样化特点,建立了空间站离散类物资和连续类物资的消耗模型,从多个角度分析了现有预测方法在空间站物资补给预测中的适用性,并基于“离散与连续类物资相区别”的研究思路,对空间站连续类物资消耗预测方法进行理论分析和仿真验证。以航天食品为例,分析其在空间站长期运营期间的消耗特点及规律,采用时间序列、因果回归等预测算法进行仿真对照分析,提出了与在轨任务相关联的空间站连续类物资需求预测方法。研究成果可为空间站运营物资补给预测深入研究提供参考。
According to the characteristics of diversification of space station material consumption, this paper established the consumption models of discrete materials and continuous materials in space station, and analyzed the applicability of the existing prediction methods in space station material supply forecasting from multiple perspectives. Based on “Discrete and Continuous Class Material phase difference ”research ideas, the space station type of continuous material consumption forecasting method for theoretical analysis and simulation. Taking space food as an example, this paper analyzes the characteristics and regularity of its consumption during the long-term operation of the space station, and uses the time series and causality regression to carry out the simulation analysis and comparison with the in-orbit mission. The research results can provide reference for the in-depth research on the forecast of material supply for the operation of space station.