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进入21世纪以来,中国经济在增速换挡的同时呈现出结构转换的特征。结构效应对经济增长的拉动能力可分为三个阶段:2000—2004年,结构效应增强,主要源于加入WTO后外贸扩大和金融体制改革带来的效率提升的正向作用;2005—2008年,结构效应减弱,主要归因于国际分工形成的产业结构固化、行政垄断、信贷政策和以总量增加为主的发展模式的负向作用;2009年至今,结构效应呈震荡态势,体现出反危机政策消化期特征。结合跨国比较结果进行的分析表明,结构效应随着经济发展逐渐下降。因此,在新动能定位上,我国应更加关注部门内的效率提升,强调新技术对传统行业的改造,而不是过度依赖新兴行业创造。
Since entering the 21st century, China’s economy has seen the characteristics of structural transformation while increasing its speed and shifting gears. The structural effect of stimulating economic growth can be divided into three stages: From 2000 to 2004, the structural effect was enhanced mainly due to the positive effect of the expansion of foreign trade and the improvement of financial system brought by the reform of the financial system after the accession to the WTO; 2005-2008 , Structural weakening was mainly attributed to the negative effect of industrial structure solidification, administrative monopoly, credit policies and the development model dominated by an increase in the total amount created by the international division of labor. Since 2009, the structural effect has been in a turbulent situation, reflecting the anti- Crisis policy digestion characteristics. The analysis combined with the cross-country comparison results shows that the structural effect gradually declines with the economic development. Therefore, in positioning the new kinetic energy, our country should pay more attention to the improvement of efficiency within the department, stressing that the new technology will transform the traditional industries rather than over-reliance on the creation of new industries.