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降雨型泥石流是影响汶川地震灾区灾后重建和可持续发展的主要灾害类型,震后几年已经给灾区群众生命财产造成了巨大的损失。以白沙河流域为例,对比研究了汶川地震前后泥石流临界雨量条件,震后临界雨量比震前日雨量降低约36.0%~48.8%,小时雨强降低约20.3~52.2%;采用Logistic回归模型对5种雨量数据组合条件下的泥石流预测进行了研究;建立了与气象部门紧密结合的当日降雨量泥石流预报等级,对于震后泥石流预测预报研究和防灾减灾具有重要意义。
Rainfall-type debris flow is the main disaster type that affects post-disaster reconstruction and sustainable development in the disaster-hit area of Wenchuan Earthquake. A few years after the earthquake, it has caused tremendous losses to people’s lives and property in the disaster areas. Taking Baishashe River Basin as an example, the critical rainfall conditions of debris flow before and after Wenchuan earthquake are comparatively studied. The critical rainfall after the earthquake is about 36.0% ~ 48.8% lower than that before the earthquake and about 20.3 ~ 52.2% by hourly rainfall intensity. Logistic regression model is used to analyze 5 This paper studies the prediction of debris flow under the combination of rainfall data and rainfall data, and establishes the grade of debris flow forecast on the day of rainfall, which is closely integrated with the meteorological department. It is of great significance for the research on debris flow forecasting and disaster prevention and mitigation after the earthquake.