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基于中国271个地级及以上城市1626个税收竞争的面板数据,运用面板门槛模型实证检验了税收竞争对城市经济增长的影响。结果显示:税收竞争对我国城市经济发展具有显著的促进作用,但在不同产业结构水平上影响系数存在着非线性特征;处在“以服务业为主的经济发展阶段”的城市,税收竞争对城市经济增长的促进作用较明显,税收竞争指数每增加1个单位,可促进经济增长42.35%;处在“以工业化为主的经济发展阶段”的城市,税收竞争对城市经济增长的促进作用次之,税收竞争指数每增加1个单位,可促进经济增长26.43%;处在“以农业为主的经济发展阶段”的城市,税收竞争对城市经济增长的促进作用再次之,税收竞争指数每增加1个单位,可促进经济增长12.16%。研究结果验证了目前地方政府间税收竞争对城市经济增长的影响存在显著的门槛效应的假说,并据此提出了相关政策建议。
Based on the panel data of 1626 tax competitions in 271 cities at prefecture level and above in China, panel threshold model was used to empirically test the impact of tax competition on urban economic growth. The results show that the tax competition has a significant promotion effect on the urban economic development in our country, but there is a non-linear characteristic of the influence coefficient in different industrial structure levels; in the city with “service-oriented economic development stage” and tax revenue The effect of competition on urban economic growth is obvious. For every unit increase of tax competition index, it can promote economic growth by 42.35%. In the city with “industrialization-based economic development stage”, the tax competition has a positive effect on urban economic growth The second is to promote the promotion of urban economic growth, the second is the promotion of tax incentives, the index of tax revenue for each additional unit can promote economic growth of 26.43%; in the “stage of agricultural development” in the city, the tax competition for the promotion of urban economic growth again For every 1 unit increase in the tax revenue index, it can boost economic growth by 12.16%. The research results verify the hypothesis that there is a significant threshold effect on the urban economic growth caused by the current tax competition between local governments, and put forward relevant policy recommendations accordingly.