论文部分内容阅读
大量的震例和实验研究表明,在地震孕育的非线性过程、大破裂发生前,近震源区不同观测点的变化是不确定的、不重复的。但从整体上看,声发射(小震)和形变场随着应力的增加而存在由无序→有序,从简单→复杂,由“白脸”变“花脸”的变化则是确定的、可重复的。要注意,这里的重复不是细结构的重复,而是宏观图像复杂性增加的重复。这种具有重复性的、地震宏观图像复杂性的变化,称为地震复杂性前兆。显然它不同于某一物理某种定式的变化,它是以地震孕育的非线性过程作为物理背景的。探索、寻找描述、刻画地震前兆复杂图像演化特征的方法与指标,是地震预报研究的新课题。地震时空分布的分形结构研究为此提供了新的科学认识。地震时空分布通常是多重分形集。远离中强震发生时,可近似地认为是简单分形集。此时Dq值几乎不随q而变,f(α)-α集中在很小范围内。许多展例表明,强烈地震发生前,地震活动多重分形谱Dq-q曲线变陡,正q区Dq值下降,负q区Dq值上升。在f(α)-α曲线上,表现为奇异性强度因子α取值变宽。异常时间一般提前几个月至1~1.5a。双标度Contor模型理论分形谱及空间分布数值模型研究表明,强震前地震多重分形谱异常的物理本质是,点集(地震和前兆)时空分布不均匀性增加了,?
A large number of earthquake cases and experimental studies show that before the occurrence of large-scale earthquake, nonlinear changes in different observation points near the source region are uncertain and not repeated. However, on the whole, the changes of acoustic emission (small earthquake) and deformation field with the increase of stress from disorder → order, from simple to complex, from “white face” to “face to face” Repeatable. Note that the repetition here is not a repetition of the fine structure, but a repetition of an increase in the complexity of the macroscopic image. This repetitive, complex change in seismic macro imagery is called a precursor to seismic complexity. Obviously it is different from some fixed change of a certain physics. It takes the non-linear process of earthquake as a physical background. It is a new topic in the field of earthquake prediction to explore and find ways and indicators to describe and characterize the evolutionary features of complex images of earthquake precursors. The fractal structure of the space-time distribution of the earthquake provides a new scientific understanding. Earthquake spatial and temporal distribution is usually multifractal set. Away from the strong earthquake, we can approximate it as a simple fractal set. In this case, the value of Dq hardly changes with q, and f (α) -α concentrates in a very small area. Many examples show that before strong earthquakes occurred, the Dq-q curve of seismic multifractal spectrum steepened, the value of Dq in positive q decreased, and the value of Dq increased in negative q. On the f (α) -α curve, it appears that the value of the intensity factor α of the singularity broadens. Abnormal time generally a few months to 1 ~ 1.5a. The fractal spectrum and the spatial distribution model of double scale Contor model show that the physical essence of the earthquake multifractal spectrum anomalies before strong earthquakes is that the temporal and spatial distribution of point sets (earthquakes and precursors) is increased, and?