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本文利用谱分析方法对我国1996年一季度至2017年一季度的经济增速数据进行实证研究。Welch的估计结果表明,我国存在长度为3.55年的经济周期,此周期长度符合基钦周期的特征,且经济周期与库存周期之间存在较强的共振关系;进一步利用相位谱分析发现,经济周期的变化领先库存周期变化0.9年左右。在分析库存周期历史数据的基础上,本文认为,我国现阶段正进入新一轮库存周期,但尚属于弱周期,对我国经济增长支持力度有限。为减小库存周期对经济的影响,建议继续实施积极的财政政策,保持货币政策的灵活适度、优化企业的经营环境。
This paper uses the method of spectrum analysis to make an empirical study on the economic growth data from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2017 in our country. Welch’s estimation results show that there is an economic cycle of 3.55 years in China, which is in accordance with the characteristics of the Kitin cycle and has a strong resonance relationship between the economic cycle and the inventory cycle. By further using the phase spectrum analysis, it is found that the economic cycle Changes in the leading inventory cycle changes 0.9 years or so. Based on the analysis of the historical data of the inventory cycle, this paper argues that China’s current stage is entering a new round of inventory cycle, but it is still a weak cycle, and its support for China’s economic growth is limited. In order to reduce the impact of the inventory cycle on the economy, it is recommended to continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy, maintain the flexibility and appropriateness of monetary policy and optimize the business environment of the enterprise.