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根据中国和欧盟的季度GDP增长率序列,文章计算了各种不同时窗长度下二者的滚动相关系数,发现我国与欧盟的经济周期波动在21世纪后表现出持续显著的同步性特征。并且,通过出口函数的测算,得出欧盟经济增长拉动了我国向欧盟的出口,从而对我国经济增长具有显著的影响。在当前欧盟经济增速放缓的影响下,我国经济增速出现同步下滑,我国应该继续运用积极的经济政策拉动内需,并积极扩展对外贸易,以实现我国经济平稳健康地增长。
According to the quarterly GDP growth rate series of China and the EU, the article calculates the rolling correlation coefficients of various time-window lengths and finds that the volatility of the economic cycle in China and the EU shows significant and consistent characteristics after the 21st century. And through the calculation of the export function, we can conclude that the economic growth of the European Union has stimulated the export of our country to the EU, which has a significant impact on the economic growth in our country. Under the current economic slowdown in the EU, the economic growth of our country shows a simultaneous decline. China should continue to use positive economic policies to boost domestic demand and actively expand its foreign trade in order to achieve a steady and healthy growth of China’s economy.