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35年以前,在中国,适龄工作人口(年龄介于15至59岁之间)与老龄人口(年龄在60岁以上)的数量之比是8:1。如今,这个比例是6:1。35年后,假设目前的人口趋势不变,这个比例将降到2:1。届时,中国60岁以上的老龄人口数量将是15岁以下儿童人口数量的两倍。人口的迅速老龄化对中国是一场严峻的考验看它能否为老龄人提供一个体面的生活水平而年轻人又不至于背上沉重的负担。老龄化浪潮所带来的部分负担,将体现在政府的预算和雇主的应付工资总额上,而政府和雇主同时还要承受日益增长的养老和医疗保险支出压力。
35 years ago, in China, the ratio of working-age population (aged between 15 and 59) to the number of elderly people (over 60) was 8: 1. Today, this ratio is 6: 1. 35 years later, this ratio will drop to 2: 1, assuming the current population trend remains unchanged. By then, China’s population over the age of 60 will be twice the population of children under 15 years of age. The rapid population aging is a severe test for China to see if it can provide a decent standard of living for the elderly and young people will not be burdened with heavy burdens. Part of the burden of the wave of aging will be reflected in the government budget and employers’ total wages payable, while governments and employers are also under increasing pressure to spend on old-age and health insurance.