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极端天气事件造成的经济损失包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。间接经济损失是衡量现代经济系统脆弱性的重要指标,也是灾后恢复重建的重要参考依据,加强间接经济损失评估具有十分重要的意义。以2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害为例,应用非正常投入产出模型对灾害过程中电力和交通基础设施破坏造成的间接经济损失进行了评估。结果显示,电力、交通等基础设施破坏对经济系统其他产业生产造成严重影响,影响依据相互关联程度不同而存在差别,造成总的间接经济损失超过100多亿元。因此,极端天气事件风险分析和应急管理应该把间接经济损失评估纳入其中。非正常投入产出模型为经济系统脆弱性分析以及间接经济损失的估算提供了有力的工具。
Economic losses caused by extreme weather events include direct economic losses and indirect economic losses. Indirect economic loss is an important index to measure the vulnerability of the modern economic system and an important reference for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. It is of great significance to strengthen the assessment of indirect economic losses. Taking the freezing rain and snow disaster in southern China as an example, the indirect economic loss caused by the destruction of electric power and transportation infrastructure during the disaster was evaluated by using the non-normal input-output model. The results show that the destruction of infrastructure such as power and transportation has a serious impact on the production of other industries in the economic system. The impact varies depending on the degree of interdependence, resulting in a total indirect economic loss of more than 10 billion yuan. Therefore, risk assessment of extreme weather events and emergency management should include an assessment of indirect economic losses. The abnormal input-output model provides a powerful tool for the economic system vulnerability analysis and the estimation of indirect economic losses.