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地震灾害中的“伤亡比”指标可以在一定程度上反映国家或地区地震灾害人口脆弱性的差异,还可用于地震受伤人数的估算,对地震应急救援具有重要参考意义。现有的研究多以一个固定的数值来代表所有地震中的伤亡比,但是数据分析显示,伤亡比在不同地震灾害中存在明显差异。因此,本文在对世界和中国地震灾害中人员伤亡数量的相关性分析基础上,利用1989年以来中国地震灾害的伤亡数据,通过回归分析构建了地震灾害人员受伤—死亡的回归曲线,并在曲线验证基础上,估算不同死亡量级上“伤亡比”。结果显示:1世界和中国地震灾害受伤—死亡人数间均存在显著正相关关系;2中国地震灾害人员伤亡数量之间较符合幂函数关系,死亡量级越大,伤亡比越小。本文构建的地震灾害伤亡回归曲线以及不同死亡量级下的伤亡比估算值可为地震中受伤人数的估算提供参考。
The index of “casualty ratio” in earthquake disaster can reflect the difference of vulnerability of earthquake disaster population in countries or regions to some extent. It can also be used to estimate the number of earthquake victims and has important reference significance for earthquake emergency rescue. However, the data analysis shows that there is a significant difference between the casualties and the earthquake disasters in different kinds of earthquakes. Therefore, based on the analysis of the correlation between the number of casualties in the world and the earthquake disaster in China, the paper uses the casualty data of China’s earthquake disasters since 1989 to establish the regression curve of injury-death of the earthquake victims by regression analysis. Based on the verification, we estimate the “casualty ratio” on different levels of death. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between earthquake casualties and the number of deaths in China and in China. (2) The number of casualties in China’s earthquake disasters is in a power function relationship with each other. The greater the death rate, the smaller the casualty rate. The earthquake casualty regression curve constructed in this paper and the casualty ratio estimates at different levels of death provide reference for the estimation of the number of people injured in an earthquake.